Environmental

2022 highlights and predictions for 2023

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2022 highlights and predictions for 2023

As 2022 ends, it’s time to look back at the trends of the year and forward into hydropower’s potential future. To adequately cover the year in hydropower, I rely on what I’ve seen while covering the global hydropower industry on a daily basis through Hydro Review and HYDROVISION International. And this year, I sought the expertise of the International Hydropower Association to predict 2023’s trends and hot topics.

This article is by no means all-inclusive of the trends in the industry, past or future. It does encapsulate some areas I found particularly interesting or compelling. You probably have your own interpretation of the trends, and I’m glad to hear them. You can always click here to email me your own analysis, and maybe I’ll include that in a future article.

2022 trends

There were a lot of areas of the global hydroelectric power generation industry that garnered a lot of attention in 2022. Here I’m covering three specific highlights among the many:

Environmental concerns: Drought and climate change

One big challenge was the number of hydropower producers, in many areas around the globe, dealing with the repercussions of drought conditions induced by a changing climate. Europe, China and the western U.S. are just a few examples. With water being the fuel of a hydroelectric facility, drought of even a few months’ duration can have serious impacts on power generation but also can cause significant environmental issues with regard to fish survival, for example.

Different areas of the world experience drought naturally; it’s not an unprecedented situation for utilities to deal with periodically. However, 2022 was notable in that many areas were reporting record-setting or “unprecedented” drought conditions, with serious impacts on hydropower generation, which consequently affected other generation resources that had to step into the gap.

In the western U.S., the Bureau of Reclamation is highly focused on protecting its water supply, for both water deliveries and hydropower generation. Funding has been granted for drought mitigation and to protect the long-term stability of rivers like the Colorado River System. In California, suffering a “third straight year of severe drought,” Reclamation has cut water allocations from several reservoirs due to low water in storage at the beginning of the 2023 water year (Oct. 1, 2022).

In Europe, summer drought conditions lowered water levels in reservoirs, constraining many power producers. The low water levels were attributed to both a lack of precipitation and early heat waves.

Drought and other environmental issues are an ongoing concern around the world, and we will continue to keep you informed. Some of our most recent content published on this topic is:

BC Hydro adjusts hydro operations due to low water levels

Federal funding targets Colorado River drought impacts

Pumped storage: A lot of talk … and some action

2022 was another year of talking about pumped storage, particularly in the U.S. However, in the U.S., despite continued long-term interest in pumped storage, little actual progress was made. This was not many other areas of the world, thankfully.

For example, in just the past month, Hydro Review reported on work to advance pumped storage development in New South Wales, Australia; Scotland; Anhui Province, China; Finland; and Madhya Pradesh, India. And new projects are being built. In December, the first two units were commissioned at the 1.2 GW Anhui Jinzhai pumped storage plant in China.

In July 2022, the Prime Minister of Portugal and the Chairman of Iberdrola inaugurated the 1,158 MW Tâmega Gigabattery, which required nearly eight years to construct at a total investment of more than €1.5 billion ($1.5 billion). The Tâmega complex on the Tâmega river is made up of three plants — Alto Tâmega, Daivões and Gouvães. The Alto Tâmega portion is scheduled to be complete in 2024. Iberdrola reported in January 2022 that it had synchronized the first turbine-generator unit at the 880 MW Gouvães pumped storage hydroelectric plant. The Daivões plant also is complete. The complex is capable of storing 40 million kWh.

U.S. pumped storage development has not been as promising. Activity has occurred, but not on the scale of the global activity discussed above. For example, the U.S. Department of Energy offered several funding opportunities for long-duration energy storage, and Quidnet Energy received $10 million in funding from DOE’s Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy for its geomechanical pumped storage technology. Rye Development files its pre-application document and notice of intent to file a license application for its Lewis Ridge pumped storage project in Kentucky.

Our most recent content published on this topic is:

Phoenix Pumped Hydro project in NSW receives AUD$7 million grant

Exploratory work begins at site of 1.5 GW Coire Glas pumped storage

COVID-19 on the downhill

For the first time in several years, conversations about hydropower didn’t automatically start with discussions of how people were dealing with COVID-19.

Although it’s certainly not gone, COVID-19 started to take more of a backseat, with cases generally declining and fewer variants rearing their ugly heads. This trend affected hydroelectric power in a variety of ways, opening companies up to being able to work in person once more, staff back up for capital improvement and rehabilitation projects, and work with contractors to complete delayed tasks.

In fact, I haven’t published a story discussing COVID-19 on Hydro Review since the end of June 2022!

On a personal note, I was so pleased it gave the industry the opportunity to engage in person once more at conferences and events. After two years off, I was thrilled we were able to hold HYDROVISION International 2022 in Denver, Colo., U.S., where we hosted 2,000 hydroelectric power and dams professionals from around the world. We offered a broad and comprehensive educational program with something for everyone in the industry, cultivated by our conference planning committee.

COVID-19 is not gone, but it seems to have subsided from being a primary influence on our activity, which only bodes well for the future of hydroelectric power.

Our most-viewed content from 2022

The best indicator of interest in the content we’ve posted over the past year is the number of times it was viewed. Below are two lists of the most popular content for 2022, which highlight interest in new development, pumped storage and equipment issues.

The 5 most read news stories of 2022 are:

UK, Kenya to partner on Grand High Falls Dam, other climate-friendly projects

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam starts generating electricity

Installed global hydropower capacity could reach 1,200 GW in 2022, report says

Queensland premier announces plan for “world’s biggest pumped hydro scheme”

Vehicle-to-grid charging installed at Northfield Mountain pumped storage

The 5 most viewed feature stories of 2022 are:

Who will build the first new pumped storage hydro in the U.S.?

What is speed droop in the governor system?

Refurbishing a Kaplan/propeller turbine regulating mechanism

Interview: Hydropower is the best option among renewable energy sources

Älvkarleby: A pioneering hydropower plant in Sweden

Predictions for 2023

Now that we’ve covered some of the major trends in 2022, what might 2023 hold for hydroelectric power? For this section of the article, I sought the expertise of the International Hydropower Association, which has a finger on the pulse of the global hydropower industry. Below are IHA’s four main predictions for hydroelectricity in 2023:

  • Increased recognition of pumped storage and hydropower’s flexibility and role in the energy transition

Engineers have long understood the challenge of balancing the intermittency of wind and solar. As both these technologies continue to be deployed at scale, we expect to see increasing need in policy and market frameworks globally for flexible sources of low carbon generation, in particular pumped storage and conventional hydropower. China’s ambitious targets on pumped storage will see even more capacity deployed, with a target of 120 GW by 2030, up from 36 GW at the start of 2022. In India, with just under 5 GW deployed today, we expect to see state and national government bodies seeking to develop some of the 120 GW of potential pumped storage capacity identified across the country. In Australia, UK and the U.S., governments are bringing forward policies to support the deployment of long-duration storage.

  • The role and opportunity for modernization (including floating solar)

Modernizing hydropower facilities provides easy wins for ageing electricity systems. Modernized equipment tends to enable additional generation with limited environmental impacts and can be done more quickly than greenfield developments. However, modernization goes beyond more generation; new technologies, as demonstrated by XFLEX Hydro in Europe (due to complete in Q3 2023), are showcasing hydropower’s evolving role as an enabler of the low-carbon transition. Digitalization, variable-speed turbines and hybridization with floating solar PV, or batteries, can ensure that hydropower facilities are even more flexible, enabling the deployment of increasing amounts of variable renewables and so speeding up action on climate change. In Africa, the African Development Bank’s Africa Hydropower Modernization Program is expected to prepare pilot projects, building on the experience of the Inter-American Development Bank and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which both worked closely with the IHA to identify modernization needs in their respective continents.

  • Increased recognition of hydropower’s multipurpose benefits

Dams provide a huge range of benefits for people – including for irrigation, aquaculture, navigation, flood control, drought mitigation and recreation as well as for hydropower. Indeed, most of the world’s dams are not used for hydropower – according to the International Commission on Large Dams, fewer than 20% of the world’s dams impound water for hydropower facilities. As the population increases and the effects of climate change become more pronounced, we expect to see a much greater emphasis on the multi-purpose benefits of hydropower, with increased recognition of the need to properly value not just the provision of reliable electricity generation but also hydropower’s role in enabling water services. This will require a change in mindset. Policy makers and operators will need to design operational regimes that take account of these competing uses of water to incentivize the most socially valuable at any given time. IHA will make the case for such thinking at the first UN Water Conference in nearly 50 years in New York in March 2023.

  • The first of many certifications for the Hydropower Sustainability Standard

After its launch in September 2021, the first certifications under the Hydropower Sustainability Standard will be announced in early 2023. Based on an independent and comprehensive assessment process, the standard provides decision-makers and other relevant stakeholders the assurance they need to plan, develop and invest in hydropower projects that meet strict ESG requirements to drive the clean energy transition. The Sebzor hydropower project in Tajikistan is one of the first to go through the process, launching a public consultation in early December 2022. Sebzor is a great example of how the standard has already incentivized continuous improvement in the sector and offers an inspiration for others to follow suit. The project resolved all gaps against the standard’s minimum requirements identified in a first assessment and, subject to the results of the public consultation, will be eligible for a Silver label.

The Hydropower Sustainability Standard promotes better projects and smarter investments in hydropower. It is aligned with the World Bank and IFC Sustainability Framework and is the criteria for green bonds under the Climate Bonds Initiative and carbon credits under RE100. Swiss Re recommends the standard to its clients to reduce their investment risks.